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Bron: Library of Economics & Liberty

Boek: Thinking, Fast and Slow

Auteur: Daniel Kahneman

Daniel Kahneman, recipient of the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences for his seminal work in psychology challenging the rational model of judgment and decision making, is one of the world’s most important thinkers. His ideas have had a profound impact on many fields – including business, medicine, and politics – but until now, he has never brought together his many years of research in one book. In “Thinking, Fast and Slow”, Kahneman takes us on a groundbreaking tour of the mind and explains the two systems that drive the way we think and make choices. One system is fast, intuitive, and emotional; the other is slower, more deliberative, and more logical. Kahneman exposes the extraordinary capabilities – and also the faults and biases – of fast thinking, and reveals the pervasive influence of intuitive impressions on our thoughts and behaviour. The importance of properly framing risks, the effects of cognitive biases on how we view others, the dangers of prediction, the right ways to develop skills, the pros and cons of fear and optimism, the difference between our experience and memory of events, the real components of happiness – each of these can be understood only by knowing how the two systems work together to shape our judgments and decisions. Drawing on a lifetime’s experimental experience, Kahneman reveals where we can and cannot trust our intuitions and how we can tap into the benefits of slow thinking. He offers practical and enlightening insights into how choices are made in both our professional and our personal lives-and how we can use different techniques to guard against the mental glitches that often get us into trouble. “Thinking, Fast and Slow” will transform the way you take decisions and experience the world.

Boekrecensie Library of Economics & Liberty

The book is called Thinking, Fast and Slow and for me it is one of the best five books of the year. No, he is not attempting to break new ground. It is more like a summing up of his career and of the topic of behavioral economics. But even if it is mostly familiar to you, I still recommend it. If it is less familiar to you, I recommend it even more.

Apropos my discussion of Super-achievers, I liked this paragraph on page 256:

Optimistic individuals play a disproportionate role in shaping our lives…they are the inventors, the entrepreneurs, the political and military leaders–not average people. They got to where they are by seeking challenges and taking risks. They are talented and they have been lucky, almost certainly luckier than they acknowledge. They are probably optimistic by temperament; a survey of founders of small businesses concluded that entrepreneurs are more sanguine than midlevel managers about life in general. Their experiences of success have confirmed their faith in their judgment and in their ability to control events. Their self-confidence is reinforced by the admiration of others. This reasoning leads to a hypothesis: the people who have the greatest influence on the lives of others are likely to be optimistic and overconfident, and to take more risks than they realize.

What bothers me about behavioral economists is what I might term “one-trial bias.” Most of the results (not all) are from situations in which individuals are confronted with a problem that is novel for them. Often, the psychologist-experimenter engages in deception. The mistakes that individuals make may or may not be replicated in repeated situations, in circumstances where the individual is able to learn from experience, or in situations where an organizational or institutional mechanism (such as the market) may produce results that are superior to the judgment of any single individual. Continue reading »